An online workforce development program changed Sandi Nuss Zellner's life. In 2011, the former music teacher was diagnosed with Chiari malformation, a structural defect in the brain. After life-saving brain surgery, she could no longer continue teaching music.

"I'm not quite sure how to put into words the profound impact this transition had on me," Zellner, 44, told CIO Dive. "Losing the ability to take care of yourself... that was devastating."

It was then that Zellner turned to Salesforce's online workforce development platform, Trailhead, to overcome her struggles and reinvent her career. After taking on administrative roles in music education programs and incorporating Salesforce administrative skills, she now serves as Assistant Vice President and Salesforce Product Manager at ConnectOne Bank.

The CRM software maker's online training platform met two key needs: it provided Zellner with a path to develop new skills while allowing the industry to add a Salesforce expert to an increasingly tight technology talent market.

The data is clear: as the tech industry expands, the talent supply has not kept pace. According to CompTIA, a technology industry organization, tech job postings reached 3.8 million in 2018, while the most common tech occupation—software developers—numbered only 1.5 million.

Companies facing talent pressure to meet expansion goals are responding by investing resources in internal workforce development programs, such as Salesforce's initiative. CIOs have elevated talent attraction to a higher priority, and many are turning to external consultants to achieve project goals.

However, despite industry efforts, the rapid evolution of technology, senior technical staff reaching retirement age, and the widespread adoption of technology across industries combine to suggest that the tech talent shortage will only intensify over time.

Talent market under pressure

Data from staffing firm Robert Half shows that managers not only feel the pressure of the talent shortage—they are already taking action. Nearly 90% of hiring managers say finding qualified technology talent is challenging. To bridge the gap, about 95% of hiring managers expect to turn to project-based hiring to meet technology needs.

"Candidates are being referred to multiple positions, and companies must act quickly."

—Jim Johnson, Senior Vice President at Robert Half

Pat Phelan, Vice President of Market Research at software company Rimini Street and a former Gartner analyst, says she does not see the talent shortage easing in the near term. "I think the workforce reduction will hit us within 10 years," Phelan told CIO Dive. "I'm not sure there will be a catastrophic gap, but I think there will be a few painful years."

In the annual Harvey Nash/KPMG CIO survey, hiring concerns reached an all-time high. More than two-thirds of surveyed executives said skills shortages are a bottleneck to achieving growth forecasts.

Jim Johnson, Senior Vice President at Robert Half, says that in his 20-year career at the firm, he has seen the time it takes companies to fill positions grow longer, and companies that once rejected any outside help are now yielding under pressure. "Candidates are being referred to multiple positions, and companies must act quickly," Johnson told CIO Dive. "If you can't get the people you need for a specific project, you can't just throw up your hands and say, well, I guess we won't do it."

How the talent shortage escalates

Experts are reluctant to make definitive predictions about when a more severe talent shortage might emerge. But they agree: in the coming years, a series of trends will make the current hiring difficulties even more acute.

One trend relates to the adoption of digital transformation processes in industries where such initiatives previously did not exist. Over time, this pressure will drive up demand for talent in already high-demand areas such as cloud computing and data analytics.

"The cloud skills gap is enormous."

—Maureen Lonergan, Director of Global Certification and Training at Amazon Web Services

The evolution of technology itself is another trend. The industry can expect the complexity of existing roles to rise, and correspondingly, the skill requirements for technology workers in the future will also increase. "Change is one of the drivers," Phelan said. "Frequent, rapid, revolutionary change, rather than incremental learning."

Baby boomers retiring due to age and exiting the skills pool is another concern for CIOs, Phelan said. Executives worry about the loss of skills and knowledge in companies as employees retire, and how to retain these assets becomes a challenge.

This squeeze is not unique to the tech industry. "There are a lot of people at retirement age, and we don't have as many new people entering these roles, and even fewer entering technology," Johnson said. "It could become more severe."

A little help from software

Despite the grim predictions of talent market trends, some executives remain hopeful about achieving their goals, thanks to the very technological revolution driving the demand for talent. For example, increased adoption of open-source tools in data analytics will improve the efficiency of technical staff's time, reduce mundane tasks, and allow employees to focus on the bigger picture, Felix Hoddinott, Chief Analytics Officer at data analytics company Quantexa, told CIO Dive.

But the industry has not yet reached this stage. "Demand is very high," Hoddinott said. "We all have a large backlog of projects we could move forward on, but budget and bandwidth are insufficient."

"Change is one of the drivers. Frequent, rapid, revolutionary change, rather than incremental learning."

—Pat Phelan, Vice President of Market Research at Rimini Street

In Hoddinott's view, the technology talent shortage will not bring the industry to a standstill. He does see a silver lining: the demand for data analytics talent means that young people entering the labor market are in an excellent position.

Automation is expected to have a profound impact on the global job market, with predictions of a net increase of 58 million jobs, but it may also paradoxically help companies manage talent more efficiently. "Tasks that used to take a lot of time are now becoming automated," Hoddinott said.

How are companies preparing?

Large enterprises are leveraging substantial financial resources to implement professional development programs, aiming to protect themselves in a severe talent shortage scenario. Salesforce, Amazon, and Microsoft are just a few of the companies turning to e-learning platforms designed to build a talent pipeline that can fill both current job openings and meet greater future demand.

Despite the high cost, internal talent development—combined with solid employee retention strategies—is the ideal roadmap for companies to maintain a strong workforce, Phelan said. It is this kind of transformation that companies seek when deploying online and internal training programs.

For Amazon Web Services (AWS), adding more professionals with cloud skills both simplifies the adoption process for its customers and opens paths for internal employee development. "The cloud skills gap is enormous," Maureen Lonergan, Director of Global Certification and Training at AWS, told CIO Dive. According to Lonergan, Amazon addresses this gap by partnering with a broad range of certification and engineering organizations to provide instructor-led training for its customers and anyone interested in upgrading their cloud skills.

"Tasks that used to take a lot of time are now becoming automated."

—Felix Hoddinott, Chief Analytics Officer at Quantexa

AWS offers 450 online courses free to anyone. Salesforce's Trailhead connects learners with an open community where other students can offer support. Microsoft provides free IT training through Microsoft Academy.

The open-access approach of these programs may also help address another widespread issue facing the tech industry: lack of diversity. Zellner's success story provides a powerful example for online training platforms. She says the tech industry should wisely focus on bringing people from all backgrounds into the technology talent pool, regardless of economic or social background, and regardless of disability. "If you invest in people, they can internalize that," Zellner said. "What they hear is 'this company sees my value.' That's a huge motivating factor."