Dive Brief:

  • Approximately 95% of AI-related productivity discussions on corporate earnings calls from 2000 through 2025 focus on future gains, according to a new study from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  • In contrast, about 75% of productivity conversations that do not involve AI are future-oriented, the report states. The authors conclude that executives are broadly optimistic about AI's potential to boost productivity.
  • However, the forward-looking nature of AI discussions suggests that while companies are “investing, experimenting and reorganizing around AI today,” the majority of “measurable productivity effects remain mostly ahead,” per the report.

Dive Insight:

Since ChatGPT's launch in November 2022, organizations have grown increasingly enthusiastic about AI's ability to raise productivity, the report authors note. Yet an analysis of 490,000 earnings call transcripts from publicly traded U.S. firms over several years reveals a more subdued forecast.

“Utilization-adjusted total factor productivity grew only 0.07% over the four quarters ending with the first quarter of 2026,” the report says. It adds that AI has reshaped the executive conversation around productivity, “even if its effects are not yet clearly visible in aggregate productivity data.”

The study finds that the share of “productivity-related sentences that also mention AI” was nearly zero before ChatGPT's release, but that percentage rose significantly in 2023 before leveling off in 2024. In 2025, it accelerated again, comprising nearly 15% of productivity sentences by the end of last year.

“In other words, firms are talking somewhat more about productivity overall, but more strikingly, productivity discussions are increasingly being framed through the lens of AI,” the report says.

The authors conclude that the prevalence of AI mentions on earnings calls reflects less about currently realized productivity gains and more about “a corporate sector actively investing in, experimenting with and expecting future gains from AI.”

For employees actively involved in using the technology, the outlook is less confident.

The latest Protiviti AI Pulse Survey found that while 28% of C-suite executives strongly agree that their companies' job designs are AI-ready, just 13% of CHROs agreed.

The technology may actually be creating workplace challenges, according to a recent joint survey by Express Employment Professionals and The Harris Poll. That poll found that although most hiring managers expect generative AI to improve efficiency, 62% also think AI automation could diminish their company's brand personality. Furthermore, 90% of job seekers said they worry about AI's negative impact on entry-level jobs.

Those concerns may be justified, according to a May study from learning platform D2L in partnership with Morning Consult. That report found that 30% of HR professionals said their company's hiring strategies involved bringing on fewer junior staffers and more mid-level workers. In addition, those HR leaders said AI was assigned tasks that used to be given to entry-level employees.